The future of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

Concern about the future of Amazonian forests is growing as both the extent and rate of primary forest destruction increase. We combine spatial information on various biophysical, demographic and infrastructural factors in the Brazilian Amazon with satellite data on deforestation to evaluate the relative importance of each factor to deforestation in the region. We assess the sensitivity of results to alternative sampling methodologies, and compare our results to those of previous empirical studies of Amazonian deforestation. Our findings, in concert with those of previous studies, send a clear message to planners: both paved and unpaved roads are key drivers of the deforestation process. Proximity to previous clearings, high population densities, low annual rainfall, and long dry seasons also increase the likelihood that a site will be deforested; however, roads are consistently important and are the factors most amenable to policymaking. We argue that there is ample evidence to justify a fundamental change in current Amazonian development priorities if additional largescale losses of forests and environmental services are to be avoided. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Futures 38 (2006) 432–453 www.elsevier.com/locate/futures 0016-3287/$ see front matter Published by Elsevier Ltd. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2005.07.011 * Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (W.F. Laurance). K.R. Kirby et al. / Futures 38 (2006) 432–453 433